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After netting nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his strongest opening to a term - he found the net 11 times in his first seven games in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that not one of his nine strikes have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so soon in the campaign.

First, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the modest opening his usual rivals for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the total and standard of chances he has had.

This isn't a statistic haphazardly selected by data analysts, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this campaign from normal play, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more excellent scoring situations to score than every other footballer.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than anyone else in the division, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as the remainder of the league.

Scoring Situation Assessment

That is demonstrated by analyzing the total and standard of opportunities that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, a dozen more than every other footballer.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His attempts have had an xG value of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - because of a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per effort he had at the opening of last term.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in the current season have been considerably more favorable to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than every other footballer and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has opened quietly either. If we look at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Whether due to physical problems - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in one particular striker's situation or simply because their sides have underperformed (several proven attackers), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That race is far more competitive at this early stage because two elite attackers have similarly opened in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the trio despite not attempting any from the penalty spot positions him as the frontrunner.

But since the two continental superstars are some of the most excellent goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the competition remains open.